Résumé
In a growing economy, the discount rate to evaluate a long-term investment is the minimum rate of expected return that compensates for the increased intergenerational inequalities. Because the growth rate is uncertain, there is a precautionary argument in favor of lowering the discount rate. If shocks to growth are persistent, this is a robust argument for using a smaller discount rate for more distant time horizons. If climate damages are positively correlated with future consumption, a risk premium should be added to the climate discount rate, which could have an increasing term structure.
Codes JEL
- D61: Allocative Efficiency • Cost–Benefit Analysis
- G12: Asset Pricing • Trading Volume • Bond Interest Rates
- H43: Project Evaluation • Social Discount Rate
Remplace
Christian Gollier, Discounting and Growth, octobre 2013.
Référence
Christian Gollier, « Discounting and Growth », American Economic Review, vol. 104, n° 5, 2014, p. 534–537.
Voir aussi
Publié dans
American Economic Review, vol. 104, n° 5, 2014, p. 534–537