Land Conservation and the Clean Energy Transition

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between land conservation values, land use protections, and the development of wind and solar electricity generation resources. We link a US nationwide dataset of renewable project proposals since 2000 to geospatial information on wetlands, critical habitats, and conservation easements. We estimate an empirical model of developers’ site selection and subsequent project progression, accounting for key economic factors such as revenue potential, land values, and infrastructure costs. Our findings indicate that land use protections significantly reduce the likelihood of both entering the electricity interconnection queue and securing interconnection agreements. In particular, proximity to conservation easements--a legal and tax structure that permanently restricts development on 40 million acres in the US--substantially lowers the probability of project success. A preliminary simulation-based exercise suggests that while land protections have constrained development on sites with high conservation value, they have not significantly affected overall investment costs. (With Meredith Fowlie)