Forward Guidance and Credibility

Résumé

This paper measures variation in central bank credibility through the level of agree-ment in a monetary policy committee and empirically studies its relevance for the effectiveness of forward guidance. In the European Central Bank’s (ECB) insti-tutional framework, high-frequency identification shows that non-unanimity within the Governing Council makes financial markets doubt the credibility of their com-mitment to forward guidance promises. Instead, they expect a change in policy direction, regardless of the ECB promising the opposite. Reduced credibility of the commitment then dampens the effect the easing bias in communication has on expectations while confirming unanimity does not seem to reinforce it.