Résumé
The main purpose of this paper is to estimate the probability of casting a decisive vote for a class or random electorate models encompassing the celebrated IC and IAC models. The emphasis is on the impact of correlation across votes on the order of magnitude of this event. Our proof techniques use arguments from probability theory on one hand and the geometry of convex polytopes on the other hand.
Mots-clés
Elections; Ehrhart Polynomials; Power Measurement; Voting;
Codes JEL
- D71: Social Choice • Clubs • Committees • Associations
- D72: Political Processes: Rent-Seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
Remplacé par
Michel Le Breton, Dominique Lepelley et Hatem Smaoui, « Correlation, Partitioning and the Probability of Casting a Decisive Vote under the Majority Rule », Journal of Mathematical Economics, vol. 64, mai 2016, p. 11–22.
Référence
Michel Le Breton, Dominique Lepelley et Hatem Smaoui, « The Probability of Casting a Decisive Vote: From IC to IAC trhough Ehrhart's Polynomials and Strong Mixing », TSE Working Paper, n° 12-313, juin 2012, révision avril 2014.
Voir aussi
Publié dans
TSE Working Paper, n° 12-313, juin 2012, révision avril 2014