Abstract
The main purpose of this paper is to estimate the probability of casting a decisive vote for a class or random electorate models encompassing the celebrated IC and IAC models. The emphasis is on the impact of correlation across votes on the order of magnitude of this event. Our proof techniques use arguments from probability theory on one hand and the geometry of convex polytopes on the other hand.
Keywords
Elections; Ehrhart Polynomials; Power Measurement; Voting;
JEL codes
- D71: Social Choice • Clubs • Committees • Associations
- D72: Political Processes: Rent-Seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
Replaced by
Michel Le Breton, Dominique Lepelley, and Hatem Smaoui, “Correlation, Partitioning and the Probability of Casting a Decisive Vote under the Majority Rule”, Journal of Mathematical Economics, vol. 64, May 2016, pp. 11–22.
Reference
Michel Le Breton, Dominique Lepelley, and Hatem Smaoui, “The Probability of Casting a Decisive Vote: From IC to IAC trhough Ehrhart's Polynomials and Strong Mixing”, TSE Working Paper, n. 12-313, June 2012, revised April 2014.
See also
Published in
TSE Working Paper, n. 12-313, June 2012, revised April 2014